Another Study Says Asia Is Rising Economic Force; NYC Still King Of The Heap

Tom Burroughes

13 May 2014

Asia will, on current trends, boast the two most populous cities in the world by 2030, account for more of the richest urban hubs in the world by that date and have a city logging the second-biggest rise in gross domestic product by then, according to Oxford Economics.

In a report that adds to the recent chorus of predictions of how the centre of economic gravity is shifting eastward – notwithstanding worries about developments such as Chinese property bubbles or bank strains – the report does, however, note that the metropolitan area New York, Newark and Jersey City is top of the rankings. It will see a $874 billion rise in GDP between 2013 and the fourth decade of the century, above Shanghai in second spot, at $734 billion.

Indonesian capital Jakarta is seen having the largest population – 37 million – by 2030, while Tokyo in Japan is second, at 36.3, with Chongqing in third, at 32.6 million, the report noted.

As always need to be considered, such predictions are to some extent extrapolations on recent trends. It has been widely predicted for some time that Asia is rising in prominence; China is already the world’s second-largest economy, having overtaken Japan in that regard. Countries such as Indonesia, with the perceived benefits of a youthful population profile , are seen able to profit from an expected continuation of global growth.

The report examined 750 of the world’s richest cities, which together account for 57 per cent of global GDP; by 2030, they will contribute almost $80 trillion to the world’s economy, or 61 per cent of global GDP.

“Chinese cities will be at the heart of a radical shift in the urban centre of economic gravity by 2030. Eight European cities will drop out of the global top 50 cities by GDP by 2030, while nine new Chinese cities will join that group, taking the Chinese total to 17,” the report said. “This total of 17 Chinese cities in the world’s top 50 in 2030 is more than North America and four times more than Europe,” it continued.

Meanwhile, although in collective terms Chinese GDP will soon eclipse the collective output of Europe and North America, in GDP per capita terms, there is still a wide gap between China and its western counterparts, the report said.

“For example, it will take citizens of Beijing some 24 more years, at projected growth rates, to achieve GDP per capita levels comparable to those of New York today,” it added.